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China will seek to balance between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states at upcoming non-proliferation conference, says SIPRI (Stockholm) China will be a crucial player at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference starting in New York on 3 May, according to a report released today by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). China is unlikely to adopt positions directly in line with the United States, US allies, or Russia. Rather, it will seek to balance its positions between nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states.

As a nuclear weapon state with an increasing international profile on disarmament issues, China will strike a position to balance between the big nuclear powers and the non-nuclear weapon states. The report 'China and Nuclear Arms Control: Current Positions and Future Policies' by SIPRI Director Dr Bates Gill states that China regularly suggests the other nuclear powers should follow its example in adopting policies such as no-first-use of nuclear weapons and no-nuclear-umbrella policies. 'China is likely to side with many of the leading non-nuclear weapon states by emphasizing the need for disarmament, especially by Russia and the United States,' states Gill. 'China will not disarm if Russia and the USA do not. And China criticized earlier 'double standards' exercised by the USA regarding the nuclear programmes of countries such as India and Israel.' Between modernization and disarmament China's willingness to back stricter non-proliferation mechanisms while also demonstrating its genuine support for nuclear disarmament will be closely watched during the review conference. The report suggests that China can be expected to continue modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces and is likely to stand out in doing so among the five recognized NPT nuclear weapon states. China will also keep a close eye on US advances in missile defence and in high-precision conventional offensive weaponry, as this will affect its willingness to engage in disarmament. However, there is no clear official Chinese position at this point on the country's willingness to join in multilateral disarmament talks. A suitable international role for China Expectations will increase for China as an emerging power to take tougher positions and bring greater political and economic pressures to bear on Iran and North Korea, with the aim of preventing them from becoming fully fledged nuclear weapon powers. Looking ahead, China will maintain its declaratory position on disarmament, on nuclear doctrine and on the ultimate goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. At the same time, China will not take part in any unilateral or multilateral disarmament steps in the near future, unless essential steps are taken first by Russia and the USA. For editors China has had nuclear weapons since 1964. It was the fourth of the five nuclear weapon states acknowledged by the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to join the treaty, in 1992, after the UK, the USA and Russia, and shortly before France. SIPRI estimates that China has fewer than 200 deployed nuclear warheads. This study was financed in part by the Norwegian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. For information and interview requests contact Stephanie Blenckner (blenckner@sipri.org, +46 8 655 97 47). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. SIPRI is named as one of the world's leading think tanks in Foreign Policy magazine's 'Think Tank Index'.