Mobile Messaging Traffic
to Nearly Double over Next Five Years, Driven by IM says Juniper
Research
Hampshire, UK – 12th September 2012: A new
report from analyst firm Juniper Research forecasts that global mobile
messaging traffic will reach 28.2 trillion annually by 2017, nearly double the
14.7 trillion messages which will be sent this year, 2012. Mobile messages
comprise SMS, MMS, IM, Email, RCS/RCS-e and Social Media messages.
Growth in total traffic will be primarily driven by the use of
instant messaging services, which will comprise over a quarter of all traffic
annually in five years’ time according to Juniper’s analysts.
Instant Messaging Makes An Impact
So-called OTT (Over-the-Top) services such as eBuddy, iMessage,
Nimbuzz and Whatsapp are already having an impact on mobile network operators’
messaging businesses, as smartphone owners find instant messaging a cheaper
alternative. Until recently, most smartphone owners would have had contract
subscriptions with ample messaging allowances, but with the cost of these
devices falling, more and more price-conscious prepaid subscribers will be able
to access these services.
SMS & MMS Still Big Business
Nevertheless, Juniper’s forecasts show that revenues from
traditional operator services – SMS and MMS – will continue to dwarf those of
instant messaging. Many IM services are operated by hardware vendors and
Internet brands driving consumers to their primary products, while those that
are monetised directly are reliant on in-app advertising.
Aside from finding more sustainable business models, some IM
service providers also need be concerned with overcoming fragmentation between
communities. According to report co-author Daniel Ashdown: “SMS is 30 years old;
but it is still going strong because a text message will reach almost
anyone.”
Juniper’s report
finds that some OTT players are overcoming this problem, with NUVOs (Network
Unaffiliated Virtual Operators), who provide their users with a real phone
number, such as Pinger and textPlus having been successful in the North American
markets.
Other key findings from the report include:
- RCS/RCS-e deployments, whether under the Joyn brand or operator’s own brand face a number of challenges despite positive early movement.
- SMS traffic will remain the largest type of messaging traffic as mobile subscribers continue to embrace its ubiquity, reach and reliability.
- Social messaging and email will also add to the momentum towards IP messaging.
The whitepaper, ‘Messaging
in an IP-World’, is available to download from the Juniper website together
with further details of the study ‘Mobile
Messaging Markets: SMS, MMS, IM, Email, RCS/RCS-e & Social
2012-2017’.
Juniper Research provides research and analytical services to
the global hi-tech communications sector, providing consultancy, analyst reports
and industry commentary.
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