Thursday, July 2, 2009

Statement of Finance Ministry on inflation

Annual year-on-year rate of inflation continued negative in June for the third consecutive week ended June 20, 2009 at (-) 1.30 per cent as against (-) 1.14 per cent and (-) 1.61 per cent in the previous two weeks ended June 13 and June 6, 2009.

Year-on-year Inflation by Commodity groups  

  Inflation rates by commodity groups in the current week are as follows: 
Primary Articles: inflation decreased to 5.4 per cent in the week under reference, from 5.7 per cent in the previous week. In food articles, inflation fell to 8.5 per cent from 8.7 per cent in the week ended June 13, 2009 due to deceleration in inflation in all components except fruits & vegetables, (increased) and milk (remained stable). In non-food articles, inflation deepened to (-) 1.9 per cent from (-) 1.3 per cent and (-) 0.9 per cent in the earlier two weeks. In ‘minerals’, inflation rose to 4.4 per cent after having been stable at 4.2 per cent for three consecutive weeks. 
Fuel and Power: Negative inflation eased to (-) 12.4 per cent in the current week from (-) 12.8 per cent and (-) 12.6 per cent in the weeks of June 6 and June 13, 2009.  
Manufactured Products: Inflation in this group during the week ended June 20, 2009 declined to 0.5 per cent, from 0.8 per cent in the previous week. Paper & paper products, chemicals & chemical products and transport equipment & parts are the only three sub-groups out of twelve which registered increase in inflation in the current week, while negative inflation in basic metals, alloys & products eased marginally.  

  Inflation in the food index (wt = 25.43 per cent) for the current week fell marginally to 8.9 per cent after having been at over 9 per cent for six weeks from the second week of May, 2009. Yet, inflation remains in double digits in cereals, pulses, fruits & vegetables and other food articles. The sugar group continued to record progressively soaring inflation rates of over 25 per cent since the first week of May 2009. 

Monthly inflation 

(i) CPI inflation

  Inflation rate measured by the Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) decreased to 8.6 per cent in May 2009 vs. 8.7 per cent in April, in contrast with the increase observed in the CPIs for both Agricultural Labour (CPI-AL) and Rural Labour (CPI-RL). The corresponding monthly WPI inflation rate in May 2009 was 0.4 per cent (provisionally). 

(ii) Deseasonalised WPI annualized inflation

  Deseasonalised overall inflation which showed a rising trend from March 2009 at 3.2 per cent, jumped to 11.8 per cent in April 2009 on the basis of final WPI figures. 

(iii) Average WPI inflation

  The monthly average WPI inflation for April 2009, based on final WPI figures was 1.31 per cent, as against 0.44 per cent as per provisional index numbers.

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