Israel's Iran Strike Routes
The jury is still out whether Israel will or will
not attack Iran, despite the endless and relentless (dis)information in the
media from all sides, and certainly when such an attack might happen,
but if it did take place, these are all the logistically possible formats what
an airborne attack could look like.
A unilateral strike on the Iranian nuclear program is not Israel's
preferred option. However, if Israel does decide to proceed with the mission
unilaterally, the different routes the strike package could take each pose
unique challenges. Currently, the Israeli air force has three principal routes
to its targets in Iran. The first route involves flying northward over the
eastern Mediterranean Sea between Cyprus and Syria, and then proceeding eastward
along the Turkey-Syria border, flying through northern Iraq and into Iran. This
route circumvents Syria's air defense network, which was built to cover its
western flank against an Israeli air attack. The second route is the shortest
and involves flying directly over Jordan and Iraq to reach Iran. Due to the
shorter distance, the likelihood that Jordan could be deterred from interfering
with the strike package, and the absence of any viable Iraqi air defense, this
route probably poses the least risk. The third route goes through northern Saudi
Arabia, over the Persian Gulf and into Iran. While most of Saudi Arabia's air
defenses and air bases are oriented toward the Persian Gulf and the main cities
to the south, Israeli planes would almost certainly be detected, especially
since they would have to fly near Tabuk's air base. If Riyadh did choose to
intercept the Israeli aircraft, the Israeli air force would face serious
complications because Saudi Arabia has a large number of advanced interceptor
aircraft. As the war in Syria intensifies, another route may become viable.
Rebel operations have already negatively affected the Syrian regime's air
defenses somewhat. If this trend intensifies, the country's air defense network
may be degraded to the extent that the Israeli air force would be able to fly
directly over Syria without undue risk to its aircraft.
Of course, if the US were to engage alongside
Israel, presidential elections notwithstanding, and the numerous US aircraft
carriers stationed in the Gulf and the Arabian Sea were to participate in any
offensive, then all predictive bets are off. One thing is certain: it is, at
least in Israel's view, that the window of attack is rapidly closing, which may
explain why crude is once again trading on edge every single day, and why gas at
the pump, has once again never been more expensive on this day in history, a
fact which the Romney camp will certainly hone in on soon to quite soon.
- Umesh Shanmugam
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