core sector communique

The main points highlighted in “The world is locking itself into an unsustainable energy future which would have far-reaching consequences, IEA warns in its latest World Energy Outlook”: (By: International Energy Agency (IEA), 09^th November, 2011, London, UK. The article is available at: http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=426) are given below:

• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) publication, World Energy Outlook-2011 (WEO), in the absence of a drastic change of policy direction the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system.

• Growth, prosperity and rising population will inevitably push up energy needs over the coming decades but continued reliance on insecure and environmentally unsustainable uses of energy will have adverse impacts.

• The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO₂ emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge.

• In WEO’s central New Policies Scenario, which assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, primary energy demand would increase by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90% of the growth in non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies.

• China would consume nearly 70% more energy than the United States by 2035 but per capita demand in China will still be less than half the level in the US.

• The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81% today to 75% in 2035 and that of renewables would increase to 18% from the present 13%.

• The growth in renewables is underpinned by subsidies that rise from $66 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035 although subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.

• In 2035 the reliance on a small number of oil producers will increase with Middle East and North Africa (MENA) contributing over 90% of the required growth and average price will be $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars).

• Oil demand will rise from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies as the passenger vehicle fleet will double to almost 1.7 billion in 2035.

• Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles that use oil more efficiently or not at all, continue to advance but they will take time to penetrate markets.

• The use of coal will reach 65% in 2035 compared to almost half at present, more efficient power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could boost prospects for coal, but the latter still faces significant regulatory, policy and technical barriers.

• In the New Policies Scenario, nuclear output rises by over 70% by 2035, only slightly less than projected last year as most countries with nuclear programmes have reaffirmed their commitment despite the Fukushima Daiichi accident.

• Russia will benefit greatly from increased demand for gas if it can arrange finance for a new generation of higher-cost oil and gas fields and to improve its energy efficiency.

• In the New Policies Scenario, cumulative CO₂ emissions over the next 25 years amount to three-quarters of the total from the past 110 years, leading to a long-term average temperature rise of 3.5°C.

• If the new policies not implemented an average global temperature increase of 6°C is expected.

• The WEO presents a 450 Scenario and it is highlighted that 4/5^th of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions permitted to 2035 are already locked-in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories.

• In absence of further action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the CO₂ emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035.

(From the Climate Change Community)