Friday, May 6, 2011


Since the last two years Silver, as in investment instrument, has puzzled investors. For a long period of time, this commodity – which is a mix of both precious and industrial metal – remained a poor cousin to its more illustrious relative, Gold.

Suddenly, Silver has become the darling of all investors. Many vouch for its sudden spurt while those who underestimated its value are repenting on two counts. One that they could not encash its growth and secondly many were in short position when it began its great ascend.As recently as in the last three days, Silver fell by more than 26 percent on profit booking apparently because of three times hike in silver futures margin by CME group to curb speculation in silver future prices.

No commodity can go non stop in one direction and taking this theory into account, even Silver cannot be a sole exception. Silver prices have to correct as technically they were trading in overbought territory. Correction in Silver prices has just started and likely to continue in near term also. The recent fall in silver is due to increase in margin by Comex. Margin call triggered profit booking in silver and this may continue further.

However, Silver prices are still in long term bull trend and could touch 85-110 USD per ounce in the next couple of years. Recent correction in silver is a healthy sign of long term bull market of Silver. Silver prices are likely to cross its recent peak near $50 an ounce by the end of this year 2011.

Silver skyrocketed in the last months was due to its demand from speculators and investors like Exchange Traded Funds. Silver rose by more than 80 percent in the previous year 2010. Silver in spot market touched near 50 $ an ounce in the last month rose by more than 60% compared to previous year’s close.

Silver also considered as bullion with Gold. So because of rise in global inflation, investors also bought Silver simultaneously with Gold as a hedge against inflation.There is a shortage at supply side in silver. Silver prices are well supported and also rose because of scarcity of silver. While its investment and industrial demand also surged in the recent past which boosted the sentiments to buy silver among investors and traders.Silver’s main uses are industrial applications, jewellery, coins & silverware and photography. Silver’s industrial demand is more than 45% of total demand while Jewellery and Coins & Silverware demand is approximately 15% each. While its demand in photography is seven percent approximately. And the remaining approximately 15% demand is investment demand.

If we look at technical side, Silver may get support near levels of 38, 36 and 33 USD. Silver prices are not likely to fall below 30 USD mark. Silver last traded near 39 USD an ounce near its support level of 38 dollar. If Silver breaks below 38 levels then it could touch 36-33 levels in the near term.However, silver’s fundamentals are still strong and long term investors can buy silver somewhere around 31-33 USD an ounce keeping a stop loss of 26 $ and can wait for the targets of $ 46-55...

-Umesh Shanmugam



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