The Chinese could well be mistaking robust democratic debate in India for weakness. But India does have advantages to exploit. Measured, calculated responses are the best answers to Chinese “assertiveness”.
The normally reticent former National Security Advisor, Mr Brajesh Mishra, recently said: “What has created…problems for us today is the unmitigated hostility of Pakistan and China towards India. Now, we are facing a situation in which terrorism is going to increase, because for the first time China has now come out openly for Pakistan's position on Kashmir, the issuance of visas on separate pieces of paper, the projects in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and, of course, the military and nuclear assistance….”
There is nothing new about China's assertiveness. When China's Prime Minister, Mr Wen Jiabao, visited India in 2005, he agreed to a boundary settlement along “easily identifiable natural geographical features”, adding that in reaching a boundary settlement, “the two sides shall safeguard the interests of their settled populations in border areas”. But soon, China upped its border claims, asserting that the whole of Arunachal Pradesh was a part of “South Tibet”.
This, however, is only one aspect of Chinese muscle-flexing along many fronts.
BACKING PAKISTAN
Pakistan has long been a convenient stalking horse for a China bent on “containment' of Indian influence.
While China's reference to Gilgit and Baltistan as “Northern Pakistan,” may have been inadvertent, the refusal of a visa to India's Northern Army Commander is clearly provocative. All this is very different from the advice tendered to Pakistan by former President, Mr Jiang Zemin, who told his Pakistani hosts in 1996 that they should settle the Kashmir issue through patient bilateral negotiations with India.
China backed Pakistan's efforts to block the UN Security Council's moves, supported by the US, to declare Hafiz Mohammed Saeed's Jamat ud Dawa as an international terrorist organisation. China also appears to have struck a deal with pro-Taliban warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to ensure its citizens working on its investments in copper mining in north-eastern Afghanistan are not attacked.
Following the 26/11 terrorist outrage, Chinese “scholars” proclaimed that the Mumbai attack reflected “the failure of Indian Intelligence”. They claimed that India was blaming Pakistan to “enhance its control over disputed Kashmir” and warned that “China can support Pakistan in the event of a war,” while asserting that in such circumstances China may have the option of resorting to a “strategic military action in Southern Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh) to thoroughly liberate the people there”.
China has since agreed to co-produce 240 JF-17 fighters and supply 30 J-10 fighters, apart from supplying four frigates, tanks and AWACS capabilities to Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities are being upgraded by China. India has to carefully analyse if Pakistan is being assisted to shift its nuclear weapons from the unstable Baluchistan Province to tunnels in the remote parts of Gilgit-Baltistan.
MARITIME MIGHT
China is becoming increasingly “assertive” on its maritime boundaries, claiming that like Taiwan and Tibet, the entire South China Sea is an area of “core interest”. The Yellow Sea and the East China Sea are claimed to be parts of China's “sphere of influence”.
The simmering differences over maritime boundaries between China and its ASEAN neighbours, (particularly Vietnam) came to the fore at the recent Hanoi meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Chinese “assertiveness,” including statements by senior Chinese military officials suggesting that the US should accept the Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans as a Chinese “sphere of influence,” has raised eyebrows in Washington.
Is China manifesting premature hubris, in the belief that US power is declining relatively and can be challenged? After displaying incredible naiveté in its initial months in office, Obama Administration officials now acknowledge the China's global economic policies are “mercantilist” and its export-led growth responsible for exacerbating global economic imbalances. Will China's rise be peaceful and non-threatening is a question being asked not just in New Delhi, but across the world.
INDIA'S OPTIONS
The Chinese could well be mistaking robust democratic debate in India for weakness. But India does have advantages to exploit. Apart from Pakistan, there is virtually no other country that accuses us of territorial ambitions, or of greed in seeking access to their natural resources. Major centres of power — the US, Russia, Japan and the European Union — seek to engage China, but deeply distrust Chinese long-term ambitions. This gives us access to defence, space and industrial technology, not available to China.
It would be counterproductive for India to respond in kind to aggressive Chinese rhetoric. But diplomatic inaction is hardly an appropriate response to Chinese “assertiveness”. While India's “Look East” policies are paying dividends in our engagement with ASEAN, our growing defence and strategic ties with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have not escaped notice in China.
Would it not be worthwhile to equip Vietnam with cruise and ballistic missiles, together with the supply of safeguarded nuclear power and research reactors and reprocessing facilities?
Can we not, like the ASEAN countries, commence ministerial-level economic exchanges with Taiwan? Should we not suggest that since China and the Dalai Lama signed a 17 Point Agreement in 1951, we hope both sides agree to abide by and implement this agreement in letter and spirit?
The Chinese are involved in what amounts to cyber warfare against India, while seeking to penetrate sensitive nuclear, space and defence installations. It would, therefore, not be prudent to give Chinese communications companies, which are state-owned, access to communications networks in India. Measured, calculated responses are the best answers to Chinese “assertiveness”.
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