Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second
quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2009-10, both at constant (1999-2000) and current prices,
alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The
details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (1999-2000) prices
2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q2 of 2009-10 is
estimated at Rs. 8,34,780, as against Rs. 7,73,850 crore in Q2 of 2008-09, showing a growth
rate of 7.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2009-10 over Q2
of 2008-09 are, ‘mining and quarrying’ at 9.5 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 9.2 per cent,
‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 7.4 per cent, ‘construction’ at 6.5 percent, ‘trade, hotels,
transport and communication’ at 8.5 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business
services’ at 7.7 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 12.7 per cent. The
growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ is estimated at 0.9 per cent in this period.
4. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of
Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2009-10 released by the Department of
Agriculture and Cooperation on 3.11.2009, production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and
oilseeds is expected to decline by 17.9%, 19.7%, 7.5% and 14.8% respectively during the
Kharif season of 2009-10 as compared to the production of these crops in the Khrif season of
2008-09. However, very little part of the anticipated kharif production of these crops accrues
in the period July-September (Q2), 2009. The above mentioned crops account for about 18%
of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Therefore, bulk of the estimates of GDP
of this sector to the extent of 82% in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and
vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which are estimated to
register positive growth rates in the range of 3 to 4 per cent.
5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP),
the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 9.5 per cent, 9.2
per cent and 7.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2009-10, as compared to the growth rates of
3.8 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2008-09. The key
indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of
12.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2009-10, as against the growth rates of
5.2 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2008-09.
6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne
kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 11.2 per cent and 6.3 per
cent, respectively in Q2 of 2009-10. In the transport and communication sectors, the
production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil
aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections
(including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 4.5 per cent, 2.9 per cent, (-) 1.3 per
cent, 15.8 per cent and 43.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2009-10 over Q2 of 2008-09. The
other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth
rates of 19.8 per cent, and 12.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2009-10 over Q2 of 2008-09.
2
(b) At current prices
7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2009-10, is estimated at Rs. 12,79,500
crore, as against Rs. 11,75,633 crore in Q2, 2008-09, showing an increase of 8.8 per cent.
8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, fish,
minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 14.4 per cent,
26.3 per cent, (-) 9.9 per cent, 0.1 per cent, 0.4 per cent and (-) 0.1 per cent, respectively
during Q2 of 2009-10, over Q2 of 2008-09. The consumer price index for industrial workers
(CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 11.8 per cent during Q2 of 2009-10 over Q2 of 2008-09.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
9. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption
expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates
presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs.
7,43,516 crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 6,84,000 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. At constant
(1999-2000) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 4,97,425 crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as against
Rs. 4,70,932 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at
current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q2 of 2009-10 are estimated at 53.5 per cent
and 54.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.4 per cent and 55.5
per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2008-09.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at
Rs. 1,46,831 crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 1,11,837 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. At
constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 89,169 crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as
against Rs. 70,259 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of
GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q2 of 2009-10 are estimated at 10.6
per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 8.7 per cent and
8.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2008-09.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
12. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,04,725
crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 4,75,353 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. At constant (1999-
2000) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 3,14,274 crore in Q2 of 2009-10 as against Rs.
2,92,824 crore in Q2 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at
current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q2 of 2009-10 are estimated at 36.3 per cent
and 34.7 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 37.1 per cent and 34.5
per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2008-09.
13. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on
GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 at constant (1999-
2000) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.
14. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2009
(Q3 of 2009-10) will be on 26.02.2010.
No comments:
Post a Comment