London, 27 April 2009 – The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that worldwide apparent steel use is expected to decline by -14.9% to 1,018.6 million metric tons (mmt) in 2009 after declining by -1.4% (1,197 mmt) in 2008. However, steel demand is expected to stabilise in the latter part of 2009 leading to a mild recovery in 2010.
The worldsteel Board reviewed the forecast for 2009 at its meeting in London on 26April. Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said: “The progression of the US financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronised global decline of steel demand in late 2008. For most of the world this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009. Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilisation of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence. Steel remains a vital core material for today and tomorrow’s world and the industry is well positioned to respond to changing market conditions.”
Within the NAFTA region, the US is expected to show the largest decline in steel demand in the post-war period. In 2009, apparent steel use is expected to fall by -36.6%.
Europe will be the most affected region outside NAFTA. The EU 27, Other Europe, and CIS regions are expected to show a decline of more than 25% in their apparent steel use in 2009.
Japan has also been affected by a sharp decline in the exports of its steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery. Apparent steel use is expected to fall by -20.4% in 2009.
Emerging economies are being affected by the economic crisis as well, but to a lesser degree. India is projected to have a positive growth of 2% for apparent steel use in 2009 and BRIC countries as a whole are forecasted to contract by only -5.9%. Projected apparent steel use for the world, excluding BRIC, is down -22.3% in 2009.
China is expected to witness negative growth of -5% in apparent steel use in 2009 as the ongoing global economic crisis hits China’s exports in addition to the effects of a slowing domestic economy. The last time that China’s apparent steel use recorded negative growth was in 1995 when apparent steel use fell by -17.2% following the real estate bubble burst. Apparent steel use for the world excluding China is expected to decline by -20.4% in 2009.
The Board will review a Short Range Outlook for 2010 at its Board Meeting in October 2009 in Beijing.
The worldsteel Board reviewed the forecast for 2009 at its meeting in London on 26April. Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said: “The progression of the US financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronised global decline of steel demand in late 2008. For most of the world this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009. Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilisation of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence. Steel remains a vital core material for today and tomorrow’s world and the industry is well positioned to respond to changing market conditions.”
Within the NAFTA region, the US is expected to show the largest decline in steel demand in the post-war period. In 2009, apparent steel use is expected to fall by -36.6%.
Europe will be the most affected region outside NAFTA. The EU 27, Other Europe, and CIS regions are expected to show a decline of more than 25% in their apparent steel use in 2009.
Japan has also been affected by a sharp decline in the exports of its steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery. Apparent steel use is expected to fall by -20.4% in 2009.
Emerging economies are being affected by the economic crisis as well, but to a lesser degree. India is projected to have a positive growth of 2% for apparent steel use in 2009 and BRIC countries as a whole are forecasted to contract by only -5.9%. Projected apparent steel use for the world, excluding BRIC, is down -22.3% in 2009.
China is expected to witness negative growth of -5% in apparent steel use in 2009 as the ongoing global economic crisis hits China’s exports in addition to the effects of a slowing domestic economy. The last time that China’s apparent steel use recorded negative growth was in 1995 when apparent steel use fell by -17.2% following the real estate bubble burst. Apparent steel use for the world excluding China is expected to decline by -20.4% in 2009.
The Board will review a Short Range Outlook for 2010 at its Board Meeting in October 2009 in Beijing.
No comments:
Post a Comment