Quick Estimates of National Income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation, 2008-09
The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the Quick estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation for the financial year 2008-09. Alongwith the Quick Estimates, the CSO is also introducing the new series of national accounts statistics with base year 2004-05, in place of the previous series with base year 1999-2000. A brief note on the new series of national accounts is placed at Annex. A detailed brochure containing the changes made in the new series at sectoral level will be released by 5th March, 2010 through the Ministry’s website, www.mospi.gov.in.
The salient features of the estimates, which are based on latest available information, are indicated below:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 41,54,973 crore as against Rs. 38,93,457 crore in 2007-08 registering a growth of 6.7 per cent during the year as against the growth rate of 9.2 per cent during the previous year. At current prices, GDP in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 52,28,650 crore as against Rs. 45,40,987 crore in 2007-08, showing an increase of 15.1 per cent during the year.
At constant (2004-05) prices the gross national income at factor cost in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs 41,38,174 crore as against Rs. 38,76,386 crore in 2007-08 showing a rise of 6.8 per cent during the year. At current prices, the gross national income in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 52,07,534 crore as compared to Rs 45,21,099 crore in 2007-08, showing a rise of 15.2 per cent during the year.
The growth rate of 6.7 per cent in the GDP during 2008-09 has been achieved due to high growth in construction (5.9%), trade, hotels & restaurants (5.3%), transport, storage and communication (11.6%), financing, insurance, real estate & business services (10.1%), and community, social and personal services (13.9%).
PER CAPITA NATIONAL INCOME
The per capita income (per capita net national income at factor cost) in real terms, i.e. at 2004-05 prices, is estimated at Rs. 31,821 for 2008-09 as against Rs. 30,316 in 2007-08, registering an increase of 5.0 per cent during the year. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs. 40,141 in 2008-09 as against Rs. 35,430 for the previous year depicting a growth of 13.3 per cent.
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION
In order to derive the GDP at market prices, the GDP at factor cost is adjusted by adding indirect taxes net of subsidies. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.
PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in the domestic market at current prices is estimated at Rs. 32,26,826 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 28,25,356 crore in 2007-08. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 26,51,786 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 24,83,357 crore in 2007-08. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 57.9 per cent and 59.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.1 per cent and 58.5 per cent, respectively in 2007-08.
The per capita PFCE in the domestic market in 2008-09 is estimated to be Rs. 27,962 at current prices and Rs. 22,979 at constant (2004-05) prices as against Rs. 24,827 and Rs. 21,822 respectively in 2007-08.
DOMESTIC SAVING
Gross domestic saving (GDS) at current prices in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 18,11,585 crore as against Rs. 18,01,469 crore in 2007-08, constituting 32.5 per cent of GDP at market prices as against 36.4 per cent in the previous year. The fall in the rate of GDS has mainly been due to the fall in the rates of savings of public sector (from 5.0 per cent in 2007-08 to 1.4 per cent in 2008-09) and private corporate sector (from 8.7 per cent in 2007-08 to 8.4 per cent in 2008-09). In respect of household sector, the rate of saving has remained at the same level of 22.6 per cent in 2007-08 and 2008-09. In absolute terms, while the saving of the public sector has decreased from Rs. 2,49,660 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 79,997 crore in 2008-09, the saving of private corporate sector has gone up from Rs. 4,31,588 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 4,70,256 crore in 2008-09 and that of household sector has gone up from Rs. 11,20,221 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 12,61,332 crore in 2008-09.
CAPITAL FORMATION
Gross Domestic Capital Formation at current prices has increased from Rs. 18,65,899 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 19,44,328 crore in 2008-09 and at constant (2004-05) prices, it decreased from Rs. 16,22,226 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 15,57,757 crore in 2008-09. The rate of gross capital formation at current prices is 34.9 per cent in 2008-09 as against 37.7 per cent in 2007-08. The rate of gross capital formation at constant (2004-05) prices is 34.9 per cent in 2008-09 as against 38.2 per cent in 2007-08.
Within the gross capital formation at current prices, the gross fixed capital formation amounted to Rs. 18,38,499 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 16,30,513 crore in 2007-08. At current prices, the gross fixed capital formation of the public sector has increased from Rs. 4,00,681 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 4,78,230 crore in 2008-09, that of private corporate sector from Rs.6,71,234 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 6,81,334 crore in 2008-09, and the household sector from Rs. 5,58,599 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 6,78,935 crore in 2008-09.
The change in stocks of inventories, measured as additions to stocks decreased at current prices, from Rs. 1,75,154 crore in 2007-08 to Rs 74,023 crore in 2008-09. The decrease is observed due to decrease in private corporate and household sectors. In private corporate sector the change in stocks has decreased from Rs. 1,24,761 crore to Rs. 27,043 crore and in household sector from Rs. 8,897 crore to Rs. 969 crore.
The estimates of National Product, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation at aggregate and per capita levels for the years 2004-05 to 2008-09 are presented in Statement 1 and the detailed estimates at industry/item level in Statements 2 to 10.
Annex
NEW SERIES ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS
WITH 2004-05 AS THE BASE YEAR
1. For examining the performance of the economy in real terms through the macro economic aggregates like Gross Domestic Product (GDP), national income, consumption expenditure, capital formation etc., estimates of these aggregates are prepared at the prices of selected year known as base year. The estimates at the prevailing prices of the current year are termed as “at current prices”, while those prepared at base year prices are termed “at constant prices”. The comparison of the estimates at constant prices, which means “in real terms”, over the years gives the measure of real growth. The base year of the national accounts are changed periodically to take into account the structural changes which take place in the economy and to depict a true picture of the economy through macro aggregates like GDP, consumption expenditure, capital formation etc.
2. The first official estimates of national income were prepared by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) with base year 1948‑49 for the estimates at constant prices. These estimates at constant (1948‑49) prices alongwith the corresponding estimates at current prices and the accounts of the Public Authorities were published in the publication, "Estimates of National Income" in 1956. With the gradual improvement in the availability of basic data over the years, a comprehensive review of methodology for national accounts statistics has constantly been undertaken with a view to updating the data base and shifting the base year to a more recent year. As a result, base years of the National Accounts Statistics series have been shifted from 1948-49 to 1960-61 in August 1967, from 1960-61 to 1970-71 in January 1978, from 1970-71 to 1980-81 in February 1988, from 1980-81 to 1993-94 in February 1999 and from 1993-94 to 1999-2000 in January 2006 and from 1999-2000 to 2004-05 on 29th January 2010.
3. In the past, National Accounts Statistics were revised decennially changing the base to a year, which ends with 1. It was primarily because in the base year estimates, the information on work force has played an important role and work force estimates were obtained from the Population Census conducted decennially in the years ending with 1. This practice continued upto the series with base year 1980-81. Since then, the CSO started using the work force estimates from the results of Quinquennial Employment and Unemployment Surveys of National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), which are conducted once in every five years, and consequently started revising the base years of national accounts statistics once in every five years, coinciding with the years for which the NSSO conducts the Quinquennial Employment and Unemployment Surveys.
4. In continuation with this practice, the new series of national accounts is being released now with base year 2004-05 on 29th January, 2010 using the work force data from the results of NSS 61st round (2004-05) on Employment and Unemployment Survey.
5. The new series, besides the shifting of the base year from 1999-2000 to 2004-2005, incorporates improvements in terms of coverage and to the extent possible, the recommendations of the System of National Accounts (SNA), 1993 and 2008 of the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the European Union.
6. The new series incorporates the latest available results of long-term surveys, such as the results of (i) NSS 61st round (2004-05) on employment and unemployment and consumer expenditure, (ii) NSS 62nd round (2005-06) on unorganized manufacturing, (iii) NSS 63rd round (2006-07) on services sectors, (iv) All India Livestock Census, 2003, (v) NSS 59th round (2002-03) on All India Debt and Investment Survey, (vi) Population Census, 2001, and (vii) Fourth All India Census of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, 2006-07. Further, the results of various studies undertaken by the CSO through the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Environment and Forestry and State Governments and also the CSO’s input output transactions tables and the Ministry of Agriculture’s Cost of Cultivation Studies have been used in the new series for updating the rates and ratios used to estimate the production/consumption of fodder, market charges paid by the farmers, yield rates of meat, meat products and meat by products for different categories of animals, input rates for agriculture and forestry and the trade and transport margins.
7. The improvements in terms of coverage have been mainly the inclusion of production of industrial wood from trees outside forests (TOF), fodder from forest sources and output of wind power generation in the GDP estimates.
8. The important procedural changes made in the new series are the incorporation of data on (i) area and production of crops as finalized by the States/UTs for the final estimates of GDP; (ii) consumption of fertilizers in agriculture, as provided by the Fertilizer Association of India in lieu of data on dispatches of fertilisers being used at present from the same source in the estimation of inputs of agriculture sector; (iii) results of the CSO’s Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) in place of the index of industrial production (IIP) for estimating the GDP of registered manufacturing; (iv) labour input on the basis of work-place in place of the present practice of using the labour input data on the basis of location in respect of estimation of GDP of unorganised manufacturing and services; and (v) labour input for the organised sector from the NSS Employment and Unemployment Surveys in place of the present source, namely, the Annual Employment Market Intelligence (EMI) of the Directorate General of Employment and Training (DGET), Ministry of Labour.
9. Other procedural changes in the new series include (i) treating R&D expenditures in public sector as capital expenditures in line with the recommendations of 2008 SNA; (ii) adopting the declining balance (of life of assets) method for estimating the consumption of fixed capital and capital stock; (iii) adopting the user cost approach for estimating the services of owner occupied dwellings in rural areas as against the present practice of imputing these services on the basis of rent per dwelling; (iv) estimating the output of communication in nominal terms on the basis of the data available on average revenue per user (ARPU); and (v) improvements in the estimation of output, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation of autonomous government bodies and local bodies by analysing their accounts on a sample basis.
Changes in the level of GDP in the new series
10. Normally, when the base year of national accounts statistics is changed, there is some change in the levels of GDP estimates. This happens due to widening the coverage and inclusion of long-term survey results.
11. The statement below illustrates the changes in the levels of GDP due to the introduction of the new series of national accounts in India. The effect of the change in base year and the changes made in the new series ranges from 3.1 in 2004-05 to 6.0 per cent in 2008-09.
The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the Quick estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation for the financial year 2008-09. Alongwith the Quick Estimates, the CSO is also introducing the new series of national accounts statistics with base year 2004-05, in place of the previous series with base year 1999-2000. A brief note on the new series of national accounts is placed at Annex. A detailed brochure containing the changes made in the new series at sectoral level will be released by 5th March, 2010 through the Ministry’s website, www.mospi.gov.in.
The salient features of the estimates, which are based on latest available information, are indicated below:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 41,54,973 crore as against Rs. 38,93,457 crore in 2007-08 registering a growth of 6.7 per cent during the year as against the growth rate of 9.2 per cent during the previous year. At current prices, GDP in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 52,28,650 crore as against Rs. 45,40,987 crore in 2007-08, showing an increase of 15.1 per cent during the year.
At constant (2004-05) prices the gross national income at factor cost in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs 41,38,174 crore as against Rs. 38,76,386 crore in 2007-08 showing a rise of 6.8 per cent during the year. At current prices, the gross national income in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 52,07,534 crore as compared to Rs 45,21,099 crore in 2007-08, showing a rise of 15.2 per cent during the year.
The growth rate of 6.7 per cent in the GDP during 2008-09 has been achieved due to high growth in construction (5.9%), trade, hotels & restaurants (5.3%), transport, storage and communication (11.6%), financing, insurance, real estate & business services (10.1%), and community, social and personal services (13.9%).
PER CAPITA NATIONAL INCOME
The per capita income (per capita net national income at factor cost) in real terms, i.e. at 2004-05 prices, is estimated at Rs. 31,821 for 2008-09 as against Rs. 30,316 in 2007-08, registering an increase of 5.0 per cent during the year. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs. 40,141 in 2008-09 as against Rs. 35,430 for the previous year depicting a growth of 13.3 per cent.
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION
In order to derive the GDP at market prices, the GDP at factor cost is adjusted by adding indirect taxes net of subsidies. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.
PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in the domestic market at current prices is estimated at Rs. 32,26,826 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 28,25,356 crore in 2007-08. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 26,51,786 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 24,83,357 crore in 2007-08. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 57.9 per cent and 59.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.1 per cent and 58.5 per cent, respectively in 2007-08.
The per capita PFCE in the domestic market in 2008-09 is estimated to be Rs. 27,962 at current prices and Rs. 22,979 at constant (2004-05) prices as against Rs. 24,827 and Rs. 21,822 respectively in 2007-08.
DOMESTIC SAVING
Gross domestic saving (GDS) at current prices in 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 18,11,585 crore as against Rs. 18,01,469 crore in 2007-08, constituting 32.5 per cent of GDP at market prices as against 36.4 per cent in the previous year. The fall in the rate of GDS has mainly been due to the fall in the rates of savings of public sector (from 5.0 per cent in 2007-08 to 1.4 per cent in 2008-09) and private corporate sector (from 8.7 per cent in 2007-08 to 8.4 per cent in 2008-09). In respect of household sector, the rate of saving has remained at the same level of 22.6 per cent in 2007-08 and 2008-09. In absolute terms, while the saving of the public sector has decreased from Rs. 2,49,660 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 79,997 crore in 2008-09, the saving of private corporate sector has gone up from Rs. 4,31,588 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 4,70,256 crore in 2008-09 and that of household sector has gone up from Rs. 11,20,221 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 12,61,332 crore in 2008-09.
CAPITAL FORMATION
Gross Domestic Capital Formation at current prices has increased from Rs. 18,65,899 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 19,44,328 crore in 2008-09 and at constant (2004-05) prices, it decreased from Rs. 16,22,226 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 15,57,757 crore in 2008-09. The rate of gross capital formation at current prices is 34.9 per cent in 2008-09 as against 37.7 per cent in 2007-08. The rate of gross capital formation at constant (2004-05) prices is 34.9 per cent in 2008-09 as against 38.2 per cent in 2007-08.
Within the gross capital formation at current prices, the gross fixed capital formation amounted to Rs. 18,38,499 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 16,30,513 crore in 2007-08. At current prices, the gross fixed capital formation of the public sector has increased from Rs. 4,00,681 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 4,78,230 crore in 2008-09, that of private corporate sector from Rs.6,71,234 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 6,81,334 crore in 2008-09, and the household sector from Rs. 5,58,599 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 6,78,935 crore in 2008-09.
The change in stocks of inventories, measured as additions to stocks decreased at current prices, from Rs. 1,75,154 crore in 2007-08 to Rs 74,023 crore in 2008-09. The decrease is observed due to decrease in private corporate and household sectors. In private corporate sector the change in stocks has decreased from Rs. 1,24,761 crore to Rs. 27,043 crore and in household sector from Rs. 8,897 crore to Rs. 969 crore.
The estimates of National Product, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation at aggregate and per capita levels for the years 2004-05 to 2008-09 are presented in Statement 1 and the detailed estimates at industry/item level in Statements 2 to 10.
Annex
NEW SERIES ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS
WITH 2004-05 AS THE BASE YEAR
1. For examining the performance of the economy in real terms through the macro economic aggregates like Gross Domestic Product (GDP), national income, consumption expenditure, capital formation etc., estimates of these aggregates are prepared at the prices of selected year known as base year. The estimates at the prevailing prices of the current year are termed as “at current prices”, while those prepared at base year prices are termed “at constant prices”. The comparison of the estimates at constant prices, which means “in real terms”, over the years gives the measure of real growth. The base year of the national accounts are changed periodically to take into account the structural changes which take place in the economy and to depict a true picture of the economy through macro aggregates like GDP, consumption expenditure, capital formation etc.
2. The first official estimates of national income were prepared by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) with base year 1948‑49 for the estimates at constant prices. These estimates at constant (1948‑49) prices alongwith the corresponding estimates at current prices and the accounts of the Public Authorities were published in the publication, "Estimates of National Income" in 1956. With the gradual improvement in the availability of basic data over the years, a comprehensive review of methodology for national accounts statistics has constantly been undertaken with a view to updating the data base and shifting the base year to a more recent year. As a result, base years of the National Accounts Statistics series have been shifted from 1948-49 to 1960-61 in August 1967, from 1960-61 to 1970-71 in January 1978, from 1970-71 to 1980-81 in February 1988, from 1980-81 to 1993-94 in February 1999 and from 1993-94 to 1999-2000 in January 2006 and from 1999-2000 to 2004-05 on 29th January 2010.
3. In the past, National Accounts Statistics were revised decennially changing the base to a year, which ends with 1. It was primarily because in the base year estimates, the information on work force has played an important role and work force estimates were obtained from the Population Census conducted decennially in the years ending with 1. This practice continued upto the series with base year 1980-81. Since then, the CSO started using the work force estimates from the results of Quinquennial Employment and Unemployment Surveys of National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), which are conducted once in every five years, and consequently started revising the base years of national accounts statistics once in every five years, coinciding with the years for which the NSSO conducts the Quinquennial Employment and Unemployment Surveys.
4. In continuation with this practice, the new series of national accounts is being released now with base year 2004-05 on 29th January, 2010 using the work force data from the results of NSS 61st round (2004-05) on Employment and Unemployment Survey.
5. The new series, besides the shifting of the base year from 1999-2000 to 2004-2005, incorporates improvements in terms of coverage and to the extent possible, the recommendations of the System of National Accounts (SNA), 1993 and 2008 of the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the European Union.
6. The new series incorporates the latest available results of long-term surveys, such as the results of (i) NSS 61st round (2004-05) on employment and unemployment and consumer expenditure, (ii) NSS 62nd round (2005-06) on unorganized manufacturing, (iii) NSS 63rd round (2006-07) on services sectors, (iv) All India Livestock Census, 2003, (v) NSS 59th round (2002-03) on All India Debt and Investment Survey, (vi) Population Census, 2001, and (vii) Fourth All India Census of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, 2006-07. Further, the results of various studies undertaken by the CSO through the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Environment and Forestry and State Governments and also the CSO’s input output transactions tables and the Ministry of Agriculture’s Cost of Cultivation Studies have been used in the new series for updating the rates and ratios used to estimate the production/consumption of fodder, market charges paid by the farmers, yield rates of meat, meat products and meat by products for different categories of animals, input rates for agriculture and forestry and the trade and transport margins.
7. The improvements in terms of coverage have been mainly the inclusion of production of industrial wood from trees outside forests (TOF), fodder from forest sources and output of wind power generation in the GDP estimates.
8. The important procedural changes made in the new series are the incorporation of data on (i) area and production of crops as finalized by the States/UTs for the final estimates of GDP; (ii) consumption of fertilizers in agriculture, as provided by the Fertilizer Association of India in lieu of data on dispatches of fertilisers being used at present from the same source in the estimation of inputs of agriculture sector; (iii) results of the CSO’s Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) in place of the index of industrial production (IIP) for estimating the GDP of registered manufacturing; (iv) labour input on the basis of work-place in place of the present practice of using the labour input data on the basis of location in respect of estimation of GDP of unorganised manufacturing and services; and (v) labour input for the organised sector from the NSS Employment and Unemployment Surveys in place of the present source, namely, the Annual Employment Market Intelligence (EMI) of the Directorate General of Employment and Training (DGET), Ministry of Labour.
9. Other procedural changes in the new series include (i) treating R&D expenditures in public sector as capital expenditures in line with the recommendations of 2008 SNA; (ii) adopting the declining balance (of life of assets) method for estimating the consumption of fixed capital and capital stock; (iii) adopting the user cost approach for estimating the services of owner occupied dwellings in rural areas as against the present practice of imputing these services on the basis of rent per dwelling; (iv) estimating the output of communication in nominal terms on the basis of the data available on average revenue per user (ARPU); and (v) improvements in the estimation of output, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation of autonomous government bodies and local bodies by analysing their accounts on a sample basis.
Changes in the level of GDP in the new series
10. Normally, when the base year of national accounts statistics is changed, there is some change in the levels of GDP estimates. This happens due to widening the coverage and inclusion of long-term survey results.
11. The statement below illustrates the changes in the levels of GDP due to the introduction of the new series of national accounts in India. The effect of the change in base year and the changes made in the new series ranges from 3.1 in 2004-05 to 6.0 per cent in 2008-09.
12. There are no major changes in the overall growth rates of GDP at constant (2004-05) prices with the change in the base year, although there are changes in growth rates at sectoral level. The only change is in the year 2007-08, which is mainly on account of higher growth in the registered manufacturing sector following the availability of results of ASI, whereas the earlier estimates were based on IIP
No comments:
Post a Comment